American Idol – My Predictions

I know, you’re asking how, if I’m so much smarter than you, did I not get the final 12 on American Idol perfectly right.

Well For starters there were actually 13. I know I should have seen that coming, but there was a mention earlier in the season that there would be two wild card slots. However, since this isn’t the first time they’ve added another contestant, I should have seen it coming and allowed for it.

If I had allowed for 13, I would have added Haley.

Which still means I missed by including Lauren Turner instead of Ashthon.

So the final Thirteen were:
Boys
Casey, Jacob, James, Paul, Scotty and Stefano (Wild Card)
Girls
Lauren Alaina, Pia, Thia, Karen, Haley, Naima (Wild Card), Ashthon (Wild Card)

My guesses were:
Boys
Casey, Jacob, James, Paul, Scotty and Stefano (Wild Card)
Girls
Lauren Alaina, Pia, Thia, Lauren Turner, Naima, Karen (Wild Card)

I’d like to say that the five girls I voted for included Haley and not for Lauren, so my personal votes were the actual better measure, but I also voted for Julie so that tosses that attempt to claim perfection out of the water.

I would like to point out that I totally nailed the estimate on the top 6 boys. 100% accuracy down to the wild card.

On the girls I either have 5/6 or 84% or 5/7 or 71% depending on whether or not missing the existence of the 3rd wild card is held against me.

My total accuracy is, in worst case, is 84%. Not bad. Not great.

However, I am now ready to put my not bad estimation skills to work. At this point in the competition the odds of me being 100% right are about zero. Still I’ll give it a go.

Statistically Naima is the most likely to go first. I don’t like it, but people don’t seem to get her like I do. However, if she sings towards the end of the pack, she’ll be safe.

So, bias in mind, here are the Idol Contestants in order in which they will be kicked from the show.

13) Haley – She’s not as consistent as the rest of the top 13.
12) Stefano  – Already shown to not be as popular as the other boys
11) Ashthon – Simply not as good as the other diva type girls.
10) Karen – A diva type, but can’t stand next to Pia.
9) Jacob – He’s great and all, but the people below are better.
8 ) Naima – If she can maintain consistency, her very real humility will carry her a bit.
7) Scotty – About this point in the show, we’ll learn that Scotty sounds the same no matter what he sings. It’s a good sound, but not going to hold on to people who don’t completely love it.
6) Paul – His niche audience is not big enough to keep him alive into the top five.
5) Thia – This is a very optimistic placement for Thia. Her youth will at some point cost her.
4) Lauren – This is also optimistic for Lauren.  She’s just not as good as her hype. But she has enough hype to get her this far.
3) James – I don’t see him faltering. But his style is not popular enough to carry him.
2) Casey – He’s got a uniqueness about him we haven’t seen since Taylor Hicks. Only Casey is more real. Still, at some point he will falter because he will change-up his style to show his versatility. He’ll succeed, when he alters his style, two of three times. The day he sits on a stool in a suit with just a microphone, he’s doomed.
1) Pia – She’s got the voice and the talent to be big, really big. And I suspect she’ll be getting some judge table pimping to help push her popularity.

Of the top 13, I placed votes for 9 of them in the top 24 rounds. Now I’m going to have to pick my favorites from among my favorites. Life is so hard.

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